“The Laws of History are as immutable as the Laws of Physics” – Isaac Asimov. Heads of State seem to be the last to understand such a basic principle of political / military operations. One of the first paradigms of war is an invading State must have the “perceived legitimacy of the population” if they hope to have any chance of victory. This was identified during the post WW II independence movements that dismantled Great Britain and a few other colonial empires. Such estimable men as Sir Robert K. Thompson, Frank Kitson and David Galula wrote and lectured about this around the world in the 1950s and ’60s. Thompson left Vietnam in disgust when American generals persisted in fighting Vietnam like WW II.
The only difference between the historically illiterate Bush, Jr. and Putin is Junior crammed his debacles back to back in Afghanistan and Iraq, whereas, Putin waited awhile to mimic his predecessors’ disasters. Heads of State also seem to be the slowest learners from disasters extending the learning curve to ten and twenty years – and still not understanding why their misadventures failed. It kind of reminds me of befuddled Hillary Clinton asking “Why am I not 50 points ahead?” The dirty little secret is Bush, Jr. et al know why they failed. It’s just not for public consumption. Rather it’s because of “Signal Intelligence failures.”
Another basic principle of warfare is one has to have the support of the military in order to expect them to risk their lives for the desired objective. This was also in evidence during Vietnam when troops started fragging their own officers. Another dirty, little secret of Vietnam was the number of American troops who deserted. I became aware of this first while doing mess duty at the chow hall upon my arrival at Quantico Marine Corps Base. I was working the serving line with a “brig rat” who had deserted in Vietnam. The VC didn’t execute him because he had taught himself Vietnamese. American deserters were a big propaganda coup for the communists. They moved him into Laos and eventually to Paris where he turned himself into the U.S. embassy. My second introduction to American deserters was working with a Navy seal in Korea who had worked on the POW/MIA search committee based out of Hawaii. I asked him if, based on his several trips to Vietnam to recover MIAs and trace reports of POWs, he believed there were still live American POWs in Vietnam. He said, “You’re asking two questions. Are their still live Americans in Vietnam? and, Are they POWs?” He stared at me waiting for me to understand the unbelievable: those American troops still in Vietnam are not POWS. Many of them are deserters. It happened in shocking numbers in the European Theater of Operations (ETO) as well. That’s why Eisenhower had Private Eddie Slovak shot as an example by a firing squad. Today we just pay for deserters’ sex change operations and let them live among us.
The U.S. government – the administrations, the military and the State Department- went to great lengths to deny Afghanistan was the biological twin of Vietnam. I suppose Putin may be denying Ukraine is Russia’s next Afghanistan in the near future as Russian body counts rise – if he can hold onto his throne in the Kremlin.
Everybody hates a liar and Putin told the biggest lie a head of State can tell. At least Hitler and Goebbels had a plan for “Telling a lie frequently enough” to convince the German population that the Jews deserved extermination and the world was theirs for the taking. Telling troops they are liberating a country only to see civilians throwing themselves in front of their tanks has to be disconcerting to the troops on the ground. “Not good, Maverick!” as Goose said in Top Gun.
Which begs the question: Who is killing the Russian generals? The Russians of course are not providing any details. It’s a dangerous thing to lie to combat troops. They can fight in reverse if they realize they were misled and are risking their lives for no legitimate purpose. “Better one man die than a nation perish!” – Will Durant, The Story of Civilization. It is not inconceivable that the most die-hard leadership of the illegitimate Russian invasion force is being eliminated by the more rational leadership under them. It happened to other Caesars with increasing frequency and led to the decline of the Roman empire. Gibbons states the natural progression of nations is from totalitarianism to oligarchy to democracy. Will Russia join the U.S. and Mexico as an oligarchy by deposing Putin?
The U.S. has the capability – if not the political will – to find out how the Russian generals died. That would be an Indicator of the tactical and operational commitment of the troops in the fight. If you thought our amazing intelligence capabilities were politicized under every administration since Kennedy you can imagine how agenda-ized they are under an administration receiving a kickback from the Ukrainians. Biden reminds me of a mafia capo (or the Clintons) who kills anyone willing to testify against him in court.
Sometimes Truth can be stranger than Fiction. Watch the movie Hunter Killer starring Gerard Butler and Michael Nyqvist – just for kicks.
I continue to believe neither the Russian troops nor the Russian people support Putin in this immoral and illegal invasion (See: Do Russian Troops support Putin? 28 Feb 2022). If it is to be stopped it has to come from within Russia. The Russian troops can help by fragging the lunatics ordering them to commit genocide. And, like Hitler, “just following orders” is no defense from war crimes. That’s called the Nuremburg Defense. It didn’t work for the Nazis. It won’t work for the communists.. . unless the Almighty Dollar excuses the worst genocide since Auschwitz (not counting Chechnya, ad infinitum…., see The Black Book of Communism).
The Russian people are no less nationalistic than their Ukrainian cousins. The number of visitors to and weddings still held at Russian Great War memorials is testimony of that.
