As “they” say “Facts are inconvenient truths”. I heard Bob Friedman on the Dennis Praeger radio broadcast opine that life in general is a calculated risk. Hmmm. That’s intriguing. How do you calculate risk? Back before Modern Math we had to do simple adding, subtracting, multiplication and division in our heads, We also had to do ratios. I also had to take statistics in graduate school. Back then you were required to conduct statistical analysis to defend your Master’s thesis.
You often hear statisticians, gamblers and Pentagon strategists use the phrase “There is a such-and such-chance in a hundred that such and such will occur”. For example, in the movie Hunt for Red October, Sean Connery as defecting Russian sub commander Marko Ramius tells his XO he believes they have a “one in three” chance of surviving the defection. That equates (rounded off) to 33% – not good odds when you’re in a nuclear sub in the deepest part of the ocean…or for anyone involved in anything for that matter.
Let’s do a little bonehead math to figure the odds of getting and dying from the COVID-19 virus. Then let’s compare it to previous annual flue virus seasons (when there was no panic). Based on the results let’s see if this flue virus deserves the national and state governments telling us to stay in our homes, close our businesses, and where and where we can not stand in public.
As of this writing according to the CDC (CDC.gov) there are 186.101 cases of COVID-19 reported from the 50 states plus DC, PR, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands. Of that total 1,110 are travel related, 3,128 are from close contact and 181,863 are under investigation – what does THAT mean? The U.S. population at last count (2018) is 327.2 million (327,200,000). Divide 327,200,00 into 186,101 flu cases gives us a ratio of 0.00056877. The odds of getting COVID-19 are starting to sound like the odds of your DNA matching someone else’s.
StatNews.com: “New Analysis breaks down age-group risk for coronavirus – and shows millenials are not invincible” by Sharon Begley, March 18,2020. WOW! That shocking news is enough to send snowflakes hibernating in their safe places for decades! Like, for real? Millenials can get the FLU? Never mind their odds of actually getting the virus is a fraction of those over 80 with a previous medical issue! It would be interesting to compare life insurance age actuarial tables of those 80 and over with the number of 80+ number of flu deaths.
Now let’s compare this virus “pandemic” with previous years’ annual deaths. According to the CDC 35.5 MILLION Americans caught the flu during the 2018-2019 flue season. 16.5 million went to a doctor, 490,600 were hospitalized and 34,200 died. Comparing last flu season with this flu season…..and the American citizen was 227 times more likely to catch the flu and six times more likely to die last year than this year. Granted this flu season is not over. But flu follows the weather and it’s already warming up. Whether this flu season infects more than 35.5 million people and kills 34,200 more remains to be seen. Did state and national authorities order our businesses closed or our lives shut down the year before? No? Dr. Fouci show me your model that it will. Models are usually based on historical precedent. There have been exponentially worse flu seasons before and the economy was not shut down. WHY NOW?
What’s different this year than previous years? Well, the Democrats have twice failed to remove President Trump from office despite corrupting the Justice Department, the IRS and the Constitution. Everyone knows presidents almost always get re-elected during a robust economy. Democrats can’t let President Trump get re-elected and his strongest platform is the economy. So, my nickel analysis based on their subversive and treasonous behavior so far leads me to believe that Pelosi and the other two Democrats on the Senate Intelligence Committee who received a briefing on the flu outbreak in China, remembering the SARS spread from Japan, learning from the Clintons’ “not to let a good crisis go to waste” allegedly sold their stock (making millions – that’s where congressmen get rich – on insider information) a week before it was made public and with a wink and a nod to their propaganda machines created a Tail Wagging the Dog pandemic to extort 2.2 trillion dollars from the American taxpayer and make President Trump act against his better nature to ensure re-election.
That’s my opinion based on statistical analysis and observing congress for the last five decades.
