Ukraine’s Counter to Tactical Nukes: Amnesty

Like a bullfighter’s final killing thrust into a charging bull, now is the time for Ukraine to use what Lenin called his “favorite scalpel” – propaganda.

Ukraine’s  most powerful weapon has always been the hearts and minds of the Russian people [see blogs: Ukraine: Russia’s Next Afghanistan dtd March 8, 2022, and Ukraine’s Most Powerful Weapon dtd March 3, 2022 this blog site]. Putin’s war has always been unpopular with the Russian people. Afghanistan is still fresh in the minds of many from the poorest collective farmer to many in the Politburo. Putin’s failure to achieve quick military success by stubborn Ukrainian resistance exposed the Lie of his justification to the Russian people for the invasion.

Freedom is a universal virtue to every human being on this planet – as they define it (listen up Bush, Jr.!) Along with that is a sense of Justice. Every child of God on this earth (minus the oligarchy in the Trilateral Commission, the United Nations and the World Bank) is endowed with a sense of Right and Wrong – Truth and Lies. That’s why “White” (True) propaganda works. 

During China’s post-WW II Civil War, Mao allowed captured Nationalist soldiers free movement among his People’s Army population. They were required to attend lectures explaining Mao’s mission but otherwise were free to roam about – sharing meals and shelter.  Compared to infamously corrupt Chang Kai-shek, Mao’s espousal of tearing down rich, corrupted land owners, business owners and politicians greatly appealed to the forcibly conscripted Nationalist soldiers. Chang Kai-shek, on the other hand, imprisoned and harshly treated Mao’s prisoners – even his own soldiers who returned from Mao captivity. At the end of a few weeks, Mao’s Nationalist P.O.W.s were given a choice to go back home to their parents’ farms or join his People’s Army. It was Mao’s ideology compared to a corrupt status quo that almost a million Chinese voluntarily joined Mao’s Long March. 

Ramon Magsaysay used the same program to defeat the Philippine Communist Party guerillas in his country. He offered amnesty, land and education to surrendering communist guerrillas. They surrendered in droves. 

It worked in Malaya as well. Sir Robert K. Thompson used amnesty and citizenship to induce Malayan Communist Party guerrillas to surrender ending the insurgency. 

Despite his feckless advisors advice to not do it, Reagan’s challenge to Gorbachev to “tear down this wall!” inspired Eastern Europeans under the yoke of communism to rise up and free themselves. And the wall came down. Nothing near that is coming from the feckless Biden administration. 

The only reason 99% of Russian soldiers are fighting in Ukraine is because their chains of command have guns pointed at their heads.

Putin’s desperation is displayed by his threat to use tactical nuclear weapons. He has never been weaker evidenced by the droves of military-aged Russian males driving across the Russian border to escape conscription. 

Ukraine should conduct a massive PsyOp campaign targeted to the Russian soldiers already in Ukraine and to those of military age awaiting being ordered into combat with no training whatsoever. Ukraine’s message should be one of benevolence – to include the promise that Russian soldiers who surrender will not be mistreated or killed. If they surrender they will be treated as Mao treated his prisoners – with brotherly love. 

If Ukraine uses this policy toward their Russian brethren, the trickle of traffic escaping Russian men at the borders of their neighbors will turn into a tidal wave of Russian soldiers walking away from their units in Ukraine. I imagine some may even kill their more Putin-indoctrinated, hard line chain of command to ensure a safe departure and to establish their bona fides in leaving. 

If this message – strength with mercy– is broadly disseminated through Radio Free Europe and social media followed by observable kind treatment, the invasion will come to a screeching halt…and Putin’s days are numbered – one way or another.  This may antagonize the political-military-industrial complex as adversely affecting their profit motive. Perhaps this is why the Pentagon didn’t try this Indirect Approach prior to Putin’s invasion. But it will save lives now. 

See also:

Fighting the War of Ideas Like a Real War by Michael J. Waller, The Institute of World Politics Press, April 23, 2007

Field Manual (FM) 3-05.301 Psychological Operations Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures, December 2003

The Sling and the Stone: On War in the 21st Century by Colonel Thomas X. Hammes, March 31, 2006 (especially the last few pages.)

Strategy: The Indirect Approach by B.H. Liddel Hart; 1929