The future of Nationalist China (Taiwan) depends to a great degree on how Europe and the United States respond to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. I say “Putin’s” invasion because I continue to believe neither the Politburo nor the Russian people are supportive of the invasion.
My previous 28 February blog asking where were the massive formations of tanks and aircraft of the invasion force was coincidentally followed by a NewsmaxWorld report “What Happened to Russia’ s Air Force? US Officials stumped” dated March 1st containing several of my observations regarding risk-aversion, large correlation-of-forces ratio being stymied, absence of “maximum use of force,” etc. I disagree with one comment by Rob Lee, Russian military analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute: “There’s a lot of stuff they’re doing that’s perplexing.” The real perplexing issue is what the Russian military is not doing. That question reinforces my estimate that the Russian military may not be totally on board with Putin. And like most nations, Russia’s military has a good reputation with the Russian people. Remember when Boris Yeltsin stood on a Russian tank in Red Square to prevent a coup by hardliners? Putin is looking a lot like one of those hardliners.
China is like a talent scout sitting in the stands to see how Russia’s quarterback is going to fare with his game plan in the Super Bowl of World Opinion. China is as sensitive as Russia to perceived legitimacy of their population – remember Tiananmen Square and Tank Man? Yeah, the protestors were run over by tanks but the communist government did make some changes to liberalize (by communist standards).
If the EU -especially Germany- and the rest of the free world had not woken up and began punishing Putin and Russia, the fate of Taiwan would have been sealed. Right now China is doing a cost-benefit analysis of Putin’s invasion to see if the balance sheet favors an invasion of Taiwan. The deciding factor is world opinion and how that opinion is backed up with muscle. World opinion = World Markets.
Remember two things about Taiwan:
1. Corrupt Chiang Kai-shek and his wife used the Nationalist Army to invade Taiwan when they were pushed out of mainland China by Mao, In doing so they eliminated much of the native population of Taiwan – the real Taiwanese people. The natives conducted an insurgency against the Chiang government for several years before being annihilated.
2. Taiwan invaded China during the Korean War. Well, kind of invaded. In one of MacArthur’s many less-than-successful-but-covered-up idea fairies, he had a regiment of Nationalist Chinese troops conduct an invasion on the coast of the Fukien Province in an effort to draw Chinese troops away from the Korean battlefront. These are the Chinese troops that MacArthur adamantly denied existed for a disastrously long time that cost many American lives. MacArthur’s brain fart was once the mainland Chinese people saw the Nationalist Army returning to “liberate” them, they would rise up in rebellion against their communist dictators. It failed miserably. The failure occurred because the Chinese people quickly saw what a minimal force was invading and knew it wasn’t sufficient to offer a serious threat to the People’s Army under Mao. If they had supported the Nationalist forces, their Party member neighbors would have executed them after annihilating the invading Nationalist regiment.
The similarities between Ukraine and Taiwan are they are both extremely nationalistic (that’s not a bad thing, Biden!), both have their share of corruption in high places, both have fifth column factions within their own governments that favor capitulation to the communists; and both countries are ready to fight to the death to maintain their political status quo. The Nationalist Chinese people have no border to flee across. It’s the Alamo for them.
The differences between Ukraine and Taiwan are:
- Terrain: at its narrowest point there is a 100 mile body of water between the Chinese coast and Taiwan called the Formosa (meaning “beautiful” in Portuguese) – or Taiwan – Strait. It contains the Pescadores Islands that are controlled by Taiwan. It reaches a depth of 230 feet which limits maneuverability and counterattack response times for submarines but doesn’t affect surface vessels much. Regardless of depth or width, water is an obstacle to an invasion force because it significantly slows your advance. Think Nazi’s aborted invasion of Great Britain. Crossing a large water obstacle with a large force makes it a big target. So China would have to dominate the air to protect the force afloat and successfully land a ground force on Taiwan soil. That’s a lot of time exposed to attack by defenders – as the Germans discovered with the RAF. The English Channel in comparison is only 21 miles across at its narrowest. With 24/7 surveillance by overhead collection assets the possibility of surprise (a’ la D Day at Normandy) is eliminated in the Formosa Strait. That doesn’t mean it couldn’t happen – remember Pearl Harbor? If our politicians are as intentionally deaf and blind to the Indicators & Warnings (I&W) of an invasion of Taiwan as they were about 9/11 (see the 9/11 Commission Report), Taiwan’s goose is cooked.
- Taiwan is only 14,000 square miles populated by 23.45 million people making it the world’s most densely populated nation. Urban warfare would be very costly to the People’s Red Army. Think U.S. invading Japan in WW II. However, the PRC’s latest Strategy on War report removes all restraints against every aspect of a foreign nation including use of Nuclear, Biological & Chemical weapons against cities making men, women and children legitimate targets. So, it depends again on World Opinion and a strong deterrent response.
- Political: The Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) is the Pacific version of NATO. If the nations comprising SEATO are as slow awakening to the invasion of Taiwan as Europe has been to Ukraine, Taiwan becomes the newest province of the People’s Republic of China. With the Socialist government in Australia they’re not a sure bet to offer much assistance. The Filipino military is very nationalistic and they hate communists but their persistently corrupt government may shackle them from significant participation. The Japanese have been itching for a fight for decades but their military is miniscule. It would take a combined total effort by every country in the region to thwart an invasion of Taiwan. Could the U.S. 7th Fleet handle the PRC navy? That depends on the political will of the current administration to formulate an effective response and the Rules of Engagement imposed on the fleet by the State Department. Historically the prior have been feckless and the latter crippling at the operational level. The 7th Fleet has been ordered to put up with at least ten years of harassment by the PRC forces in the Taiwan Straight already – when a forceful response at the beginning would have stopped it in its tracks. Communists don’t respect anything but force. They are hyenas when they see weakness. If the 7th Fleet’s hulls haven’t all been replaced with aluminum and they can fight shackle-free they can defeat the PRC navy – but it will be at significant cost. The correlation of forces U.S. : PRC weighs heavily on the U.S. side. It depends on if they’re allowed to fight their war.
So we can foresee Taiwan’s future by how Putin’s invasion unfolds. If some smart people could gerrymander Putin’s removal from office as a result of his invasion, if the Free World united (without cheating) and isolated Russia in all its political, military, economic, social, infrastructure aspects, the surviving Ukrainian people would retain their corruption-ridden democracy (fighting for the “New World Order”? Really? A One Government World is what she is really saying they’re fighting for (whether she knows it or not) so is Ukraine even worth supporting?) and Taiwan could breathe a little easier for another decade or so until America “votes in” another Biden or Harris.
